MINVikings
9-4
39
TBD
StubHub Center
64°F
14 mph
10
LACChargers
5-8
TBD
StubHub Center
64°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
6
7
6
14
33
Chargers
3
7
0
0
10
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
345
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
5.5
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.49
Passing Yards
--
283
Comp/Att
19/25(76%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.25
-0.45
Rushing Yards
137
62
Rush Attempts
37
19
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.54
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
7
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
4
Turnover EPA
-4.91
-35.07
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-24
Sack EPA
--
-12.81
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-6.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+63.7
Base HFA
+47.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.3
Home QB Adjustment
-5.7
Away QB Adjustment
+15.5
Market Regression
+13.1
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.5
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
13
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18
EPA
EPA / Play
10
22
EPA / Pass
9
22
EPA / Rush
12
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
7
21
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
28
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Chargers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
10
13
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
28
17
EPA
EPA / Play
11
5
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
25
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
23
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
18
3
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
19
4th Down Efficiency
9
22
RZ Efficiency
22
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U