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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ commanders week 10, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
5-3
20
TBD
FedExField
58°F
7 mph
26
WASCommanders
4-3
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
58°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
20
0
0
20
Commanders
7
7
6
6
26

Spread

WAS logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
331
388
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
5.2
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.14
Passing Yards
284
260
Comp/Att
31/40(78%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.35
Rushing Yards
47
128
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.27
-4.04
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-2
Sack EPA
-4.68
-1.06
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
35
Penalty EPA
-3.20
-4.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+105.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+26.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
Value
Ptile
12/20
2.7
70
12/26
1.1
57
01/03
3.7
78
09/18
1.9
64
09/25
-1.1
40
10/03
3.4
75
10/09
4.7
82
10/23
-7.2
7
10/31
-4.3
18
11/06
2.6
69
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Value
Ptile
01/03
4.1
79
01/10
1.1
58
09/12
1.8
63
09/18
2.3
67
09/25
0.8
55
10/02
0.0
49
10/09
1.4
59
10/16
1.4
59
10/23
5.9
86
10/30
7.7
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Vikings logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24

EPA

EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
32
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
29
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
20
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Commanders logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
12
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19

EPA

EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
5
2
EPA / Rush
6
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
14
14
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
14
2
RZ Efficiency
30
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
7
W
W
U
01/10
-1
L
W
U
09/11
9
W
W
O
09/18
3
W
W
U
09/25
12
W
W
U
10/03
14
W
W
U
10/09
18
W
W
O
10/23
-11
L
L
U
10/31
-10
L
L
U
11/06
-6
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
11
W
W
O
01/10
-17
L
L
O
09/12
-22
L
L
O
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
2
W
W
O
10/02
11
W
W
O
10/09
6
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
U
10/30
0
T
W
O