MINVikings
5-3
20
TBD
FedExField
58°F
7 mph
26
WASCommanders
4-3
TBD
FedExField
58°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
20
0
0
20
Commanders
7
7
6
6
26
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
388
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
5.2
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.14
Passing Yards
284
260
Comp/Att
31/40(78%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.35
Rushing Yards
47
128
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
2.2
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.27
-4.04
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-2
Sack EPA
-4.68
-1.06
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
35
35
Penalty EPA
-3.20
-4.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+104.0
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+26.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24
EPA
EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
32
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
29
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
20
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
12
4
Rushing Yards / Game
20
19
EPA
EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
5
2
EPA / Rush
6
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
14
14
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
14
2
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Commanders
5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U