MINVikings
1-6
23
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
027
DALCowboys
4-4
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
7
7
6
23
Cowboys
3
3
8
7
21
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
350
Total Plays
68
63
Yards / Play
5.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.04
Passing Yards
224
314
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
34/51(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.12
Rushing Yards
169
36
Rush Attempts
29
9
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.02
-2.87
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-23
Sack EPA
-6.86
-3.67
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-3.83
-5.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
-28.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
26
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
21
25
Rushing Yards / Game
9
26
EPA
EPA / Play
15
25
EPA / Pass
27
24
EPA / Rush
1
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
26
Interceptions / Game
20
16
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Cowboys Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
32
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16
EPA
EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
11
29
EPA / Rush
3
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
11
Interceptions / Game
9
25
Fumbles / Game
13
27
Turnover EPA / Game
25
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
3
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U