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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ cowboys week 15, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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MIN logo
MINVikings
5-8
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
26
DALCowboys
6-6
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
10
7
10
34
Cowboys
7
10
6
3
26

Spread

MIN logo
+5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
327
423
Total Plays
52
69
Yards / Play
6.3
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.29
+0.05
Passing Yards
--
285
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
23/38(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.50
+0.03
Rushing Yards
77
138
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
2.8
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
22%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.61
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-4.17
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
17
58
Penalty EPA
-2.17
-6.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+44.4
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+38.0
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
-21.1
Market Regression
-17.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

J. McCarthy headshot

J. McCarthy

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-21.1
Value
Ptile
09/08
-0.3
47
09/14
-13.0
0
11/02
-5.6
15
11/09
-2.7
32
11/16
-7.0
8
11/23
-12.3
1
12/07
-1.0
43
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
09/28
11.2
99
10/05
6.6
91
10/12
6.9
92
10/19
5.0
84
10/26
-4.3
22
11/03
-3.9
24
11/17
6.7
91
11/23
6.6
91
11/27
4.3
78
12/04
-2.1
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Vikings logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
26
32
Yards / Game
29
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
25
20

EPA

EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
31
30
EPA / Rush
17
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
32
29
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
22
RZ Efficiency
13
31
Cowboys Offense vs Vikings Defense
Cowboys logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
4
10
Yards / Game
1
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
9
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22

EPA

EPA / Play
1
4
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
16
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
3
Interceptions / Game
16
24
Fumbles / Game
23
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
17
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-3
L
L
O
10/05
4
W
W
O
10/19
-6
L
L
O
10/23
-27
L
L
O
11/02
3
W
W
O
11/09
-8
L
L
U
11/16
-2
L
L
U
11/23
-17
L
L
U
11/30
-26
L
L
U
12/07
31
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

5-4-1
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
0
T
W
O
10/05
15
W
W
O
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
22
W
W
O
10/26
-20
L
L
O
11/03
-10
L
L
U
11/17
17
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
W
U
11/27
3
W
W
O
12/04
-14
L
L
O