MINVikings
6-8
35
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
9 mph
37
MIADolphins
7-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
10
0
18
35
Dolphins
0
7
7
21
35
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
493
Total Plays
58
77
Yards / Play
6.2
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.17
Passing Yards
238
383
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
35/47(74%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.41
Rushing Yards
121
110
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
36
Passing 1st downs
11
23
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
58%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.67
-13.09
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-13
Sack EPA
-4.35
-1.92
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
74
54
Penalty EPA
-9.15
-5.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+24.1
Market Regression
-47.2
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.1
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23
EPA
EPA / Play
18
19
EPA / Pass
24
20
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
1
6
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
13
13
Dolphins Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
24
EPA
EPA / Play
13
14
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
15
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
15
27
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
20
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U