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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ dolphins week 16, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-8
35
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
9 mph
37
MIADolphins
7-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
10
0
18
35
Dolphins
0
7
7
21
35

Spread

MIN logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
359
493
Total Plays
58
77
Yards / Play
6.2
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.17
Passing Yards
238
383
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
35/47(74%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.41
Rushing Yards
121
110
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
20
36
Passing 1st downs
11
23
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
58%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.67
-13.09
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-13
Sack EPA
-4.35
-1.92
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
74
54
Penalty EPA
-9.15
-5.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-9.6
Home QB Adjustment
+14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+24.1
Market Regression
-46.8
Final Difference
124.2
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.1
Value
Ptile
09/28
6.0
86
10/12
-13.6
0
10/19
-8.6
7
10/26
-1.2
42
11/02
1.5
61
11/16
-5.5
17
11/23
-0.1
49
11/30
-1.6
38
12/07
0.9
56
12/14
1.5
61
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
Value
Ptile
10/12
3.2
72
10/19
6.1
87
10/26
-2.0
36
11/02
10.4
97
11/09
-1.6
39
11/13
3.1
72
11/23
6.3
87
12/01
-2.2
35
12/07
-4.0
26
12/14
-1.5
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Vikings logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23

EPA

EPA / Play
18
19
EPA / Pass
24
20
EPA / Rush
2
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
1
6
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
27
RZ Efficiency
13
13
Dolphins Offense vs Vikings Defense
Dolphins logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
17
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
24

EPA

EPA / Play
13
14
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
15
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
15
27
Turnover EPA / Game
18
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
20
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
21
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-32
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-1
L
W
U
10/26
6
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
W
O
11/16
-8
L
L
U
11/23
-3
L
W
U
11/30
18
W
W
O
12/07
6
W
W
O
12/14
-2
L
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
13
W
W
U
10/26
14
W
W
U
11/02
37
W
W
U
11/09
-4
L
L
U
11/13
13
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/07
-15
L
L
U
12/14
-28
L
L
O