MINVikings
5-0
10
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
20 mph
21
PHIEagles
3-2
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
0
7
10
Eagles
0
11
7
3
21
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
282
241
Total Plays
74
55
Yards / Play
3.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.18
Passing Yards
189
--
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.47
-0.23
Rushing Yards
93
103
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
11
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
5
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
3
Turnover EPA
-17.31
-14.56
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-17.16
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
46
53
Penalty EPA
-11.86
-11.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-64
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+42.8
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.4
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-45.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+42.2
Market Regression
-42.5
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+42.2
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
28
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
15
EPA
EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
14
5
EPA / Rush
32
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
19
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
19
4th Down Efficiency
22
11
RZ Efficiency
29
3
Eagles Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19
EPA
EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
20
2
EPA / Rush
13
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
18
2
RZ Efficiency
25
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
10-0
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U