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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ eagles week 7, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
5-0
10
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
20 mph
21
PHIEagles
3-2
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
0
7
10
Eagles
0
11
7
3
21

Spread

PHI logo
+3

Total

UNDER
39

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
282
241
Total Plays
74
55
Yards / Play
3.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.28
-0.18
Passing Yards
189
--
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.47
-0.23
Rushing Yards
93
103
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.46
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
47%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
11
Red Zone %
25%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
3
5
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
3
Turnover EPA
-17.31
-14.56
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-35
--
Sack EPA
-17.16
--
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
46
53
Penalty EPA
-11.86
-11.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-64
Home nfelo
1,514
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+43.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.0
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-45.8
Home QB Adjustment
-3.6
Away QB Adjustment
+42.2
Market Regression
-42.5
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+42.2
Value
Ptile
11/15
-1.3
41
12/06
-1.1
43
12/13
-1.1
44
12/20
2.7
70
12/26
1.1
57
01/03
3.7
78
09/18
1.9
64
09/25
-1.1
40
10/03
3.4
75
10/09
4.7
82
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Value
Ptile
09/11
1.5
60
09/19
-2.0
34
09/25
7.7
91
10/09
0.4
53
10/16
-8.4
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Eagles Defense
Vikings logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
28
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
3
Rushing Yards / Game
32
15

EPA

EPA / Play
23
10
EPA / Pass
14
5
EPA / Rush
32
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
19
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
29
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
19
4th Down Efficiency
22
11
RZ Efficiency
29
3
Eagles Offense vs Vikings Defense
Eagles logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
19

EPA

EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
20
2
EPA / Rush
13
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
18
2
RZ Efficiency
25
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

8-2
SU
10-0
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
-3
L
W
U
12/20
21
W
W
O
12/27
32
W
W
O
01/03
7
W
W
U
01/10
-1
L
W
U
09/11
9
W
W
O
09/18
3
W
W
U
09/25
12
W
W
U
10/03
14
W
W
U
10/09
18
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
7
W
W
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
-23
L
L
O
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/03
5
W
W
O
09/11
19
W
W
U
09/19
15
W
W
O
09/25
31
W
W
U
10/09
-1
L
L
O
10/16
-7
L
L
O