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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ giants week 5, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-2
28
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
10 mph
10
NYGGiants
2-2
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
66°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
13
7
3
26
Giants
0
7
3
0
10

Spread

MIN logo
-6

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
490
211
Total Plays
64
62
Yards / Play
7.7
3.4
EPA / Play
+0.25
-0.10
Passing Yards
279
147
Comp/Att
22/27(81%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.75
-0.29
Rushing Yards
211
64
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
6.2
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.39
-2.42
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-27
-35
Sack EPA
-4.25
-6.34
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
112
45
Penalty EPA
-15.15
-6.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+65.6
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.9
Net QB Adjustment
-3.8
Home QB Adjustment
-14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-10.9
Market Regression
+3.9
Final Difference
-112.8
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Value
Ptile
11/25
8.9
94
12/02
-3.0
27
12/10
-1.7
35
12/16
-2.1
33
12/23
4.5
77
12/30
-3.2
26
09/08
-1.6
42
09/15
-6.0
15
09/22
0.2
53
09/29
-2.9
31
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
Value
Ptile
09/22
6.1
87
09/29
0.2
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Giants Defense
Vikings logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
11
30
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
8
20

EPA

EPA / Play
10
24
EPA / Pass
9
28
EPA / Rush
13
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
20
4th Down Efficiency
16
24
RZ Efficiency
10
17
Giants Offense vs Vikings Defense
Giants logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
23
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17

EPA

EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
27
6
EPA / Rush
11
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
23
Interceptions / Game
25
3
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
2
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
19
4th Down Efficiency
18
22
RZ Efficiency
17
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/10
-14
L
L
U
12/16
24
W
W
O
12/23
18
W
W
U
12/30
-14
L
L
U
09/08
16
W
W
U
09/15
-5
L
L
U
09/22
20
W
W
O
09/29
-10
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-3
L
W
U
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
24
W
W
O
12/16
-17
L
L
U
12/23
-1
L
W
O
12/30
-1
L
L
O
09/08
-18
L
L
O
09/15
-14
L
L
U
09/22
1
W
W
O
09/29
21
W
W
U