MINVikings
1-4
7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
4 mph
23
NYGGiants
0-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
1
0
0
0
1
Giants
3
7
7
6
23
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
206
257
Total Plays
68
73
Yards / Play
3.0
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.08
Passing Yards
176
193
Comp/Att
20/53(38%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.01
Rushing Yards
30
64
Rush Attempts
14
32
Yards / Rush
2.1
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
17
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
39%
37%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
18
19
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-5.61
+6.84
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-14
-7
Sack EPA
-2.86
-1.14
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
38
72
Penalty EPA
-3.48
-11.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+53
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.4
Home QB Adjustment
-26.8
Away QB Adjustment
-34.1
Market Regression
+62.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-34.1
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-26.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
12
EPA
EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
3
RZ Efficiency
17
15
Giants Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
32
Yards / Game
29
31
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16
EPA
EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
28
29
EPA / Rush
32
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
11
Interceptions / Game
32
25
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
1
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
30
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U