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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ giants week 7, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
1-4
7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
4 mph
23
NYGGiants
0-6
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
1
0
0
0
1
Giants
3
7
7
6
23

Spread

NYG logo
-4

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
206
257
Total Plays
68
73
Yards / Play
3.0
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.08
Passing Yards
176
193
Comp/Att
20/53(38%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.37
+0.01
Rushing Yards
30
64
Rush Attempts
14
32
Yards / Rush
2.1
2.0
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
13
17
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
39%
37%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
18
19
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-5.61
+6.84
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-14
-7
Sack EPA
-2.86
-1.14
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
38
72
Penalty EPA
-3.48
-11.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+7.4
Home QB Adjustment
-26.8
Away QB Adjustment
-34.1
Market Regression
+62.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-34.1
Value
Ptile
11/18
0.5
53
11/25
-0.4
47
12/02
-0.4
47
12/09
-3.5
27
12/16
-9.7
2
12/23
-7.0
9
12/30
-1.4
39
09/08
-4.6
21
09/15
-5.6
16
09/22
-6.7
12
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-26.8
Value
Ptile
12/09
2.3
63
12/16
-7.4
8
12/23
-3.6
26
12/30
5.8
86
09/08
4.3
80
09/15
-2.9
33
09/22
-12.2
1
09/29
-4.4
22
10/06
-5.4
18
10/10
-5.6
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Giants Defense
Vikings logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
15
17
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
9
12

EPA

EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
1
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
3
RZ Efficiency
17
15
Giants Offense vs Vikings Defense
Giants logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
28
32
Yards / Game
29
31
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
16

EPA

EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
28
29
EPA / Rush
32
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
11
Interceptions / Game
32
25
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
1
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
25
RZ Efficiency
30
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/16
14
W
W
O
12/23
17
W
W
U
12/30
3
W
W
O
01/05
-14
L
L
U
09/08
-10
L
L
O
09/15
-1
L
W
O
09/22
-4
L
L
O
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/13
-25
L
L
O
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
25
W
W
O
12/16
-34
L
L
U
12/23
-19
L
L
U
12/30
35
W
W
O
09/08
-5
L
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
O
09/22
-38
L
L
U
09/29
-24
L
L
U
10/06
-15
L
L
O
10/10
-6
L
W
O