MINVikings
1-2
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
72°F
10 mph
29
NYJJets
3-1
TBD
MetLife Stadium
72°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
7
13
20
Jets
3
6
6
8
23
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
336
328
Total Plays
63
78
Yards / Play
5.3
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.01
Passing Yards
240
173
Comp/Att
14/35(40%)
21/44(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.25
Rushing Yards
96
155
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.50
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.80
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-18
Sack EPA
-3.12
-3.31
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-3.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+21.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-10.5
Market Regression
+0.2
Final Difference
89.0
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
12
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
5
EPA
EPA / Play
27
8
EPA / Pass
30
9
EPA / Rush
14
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
29
Interceptions / Game
32
25
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
15
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
30
25
Jets Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
18
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9
EPA
EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
18
10
EPA / Rush
6
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
10
17
Fumbles / Game
5
22
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
19
RZ Efficiency
28
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jets
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U