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  1. nfelo...
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  3. vikings @ jets week 5, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
1-2
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
72°F
10 mph
29
NYJJets
3-1
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
72°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
7
13
20
Jets
3
6
6
8
23

Spread

NYJ logo
-4

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
336
328
Total Plays
63
78
Yards / Play
5.3
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.01
Passing Yards
240
173
Comp/Att
14/35(40%)
21/44(48%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
3.9
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.25
Rushing Yards
96
155
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.50
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
47%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.80
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-18
Sack EPA
-3.12
-3.31
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-3.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model60.5%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.3%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+2.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+21.3
Home QB Adjustment
+10.8
Away QB Adjustment
-10.5
Market Regression
-1.5
Final Difference
73.7
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
Value
Ptile
12/06
0.3
53
12/13
-1.5
40
12/20
-4.0
24
12/28
3.9
75
01/03
12.0
99
01/17
5.1
82
01/24
1.7
61
09/09
-2.2
33
09/19
-7.4
9
09/26
-4.2
22
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.8
Value
Ptile
12/20
-7.2
10
12/27
-4.4
22
01/03
-3.4
28
01/09
3.1
70
01/17
-5.1
20
01/24
2.4
65
09/13
-5.5
15
09/19
3.3
71
09/26
5.7
86
10/03
2.0
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Jets Defense
Vikings logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
12
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
5

EPA

EPA / Play
27
8
EPA / Pass
30
9
EPA / Rush
14
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
29
Interceptions / Game
32
25
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
15
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
30
25
Jets Offense vs Vikings Defense
Jets logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
14
18
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
6
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9

EPA

EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
18
10
EPA / Rush
6
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
10
17
Fumbles / Game
5
22
Turnover EPA / Game
28
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
19
RZ Efficiency
28
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-13
L
L
U
12/13
20
W
W
U
12/20
-19
L
L
U
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/03
37
W
W
O
01/17
31
W
W
U
01/24
-3
L
W
O
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-4
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-3
L
L
U
12/27
14
W
W
O
01/03
37
W
W
O
01/09
10
W
W
O
01/17
3
W
W
U
01/24
-13
L
L
O
09/13
-1
L
L
U
09/19
14
W
W
O
09/26
8
W
W
O
10/03
24
W
W
O