MINVikings
-
24
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
034
DETLions
-
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
7
10
0
24
Lions
3
10
14
7
34
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
469
Total Plays
53
77
Yards / Play
6.2
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.03
Passing Yards
225
--
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
28/43(65%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.13
Rushing Yards
105
112
Rush Attempts
22
34
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
20%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-15.47
-7.51
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-3.80
--
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
52
88
Penalty EPA
-7.08
-2.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
-0.5
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
14
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6
EPA
EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
1
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
20
16
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
17
1
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
32
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
32
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16
EPA
EPA / Play
19
29
EPA / Pass
12
29
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
11
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
31
27
Turnover EPA / Game
2
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
25
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U