MINVikings
1-0
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
013
DETLions
0-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
7
10
10
27
Lions
3
7
0
3
13
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
265
Total Plays
56
66
Yards / Play
4.7
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.27
Passing Yards
153
136
Comp/Att
24/28(86%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.35
Rushing Yards
112
129
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.26
-17.32
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-16
-16
Sack EPA
-4.21
-3.39
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
43
45
Penalty EPA
-3.61
-4.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market80.1%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-222
Home nfelo
1,301
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-241.9
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
6
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
11
25
EPA
EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
3
31
EPA / Rush
32
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
9
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
24
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
29
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
8
Yards / Game
26
4
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
23
1
EPA
EPA / Play
30
3
EPA / Pass
29
12
EPA / Rush
25
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
19
Interceptions / Game
32
27
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
1
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
24
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
1-0-9
O/U
Lions
0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
1-0-9
O/U