MINVikings
3-2
28
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
019
DETLions
1-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
12
10
3
28
Lions
14
3
0
0
17
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
274
Total Plays
74
50
Yards / Play
5.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.10
Passing Yards
285
197
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.22
Rushing Yards
140
77
Rush Attempts
35
17
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.28
--
Sacks
4
7
Sack Yards
-31
-59
Sack EPA
-4.91
-11.74
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-5.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-24
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+8.7
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
+25.3
Final Difference
0.3
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20
EPA
EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
24
23
EPA / Rush
4
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
25
29
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
17
EPA
EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
19
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
11
25
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
10
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U