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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ lions week 7, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
3-2
28
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
19
DETLions
1-5
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
12
10
3
28
Lions
14
3
0
0
17

Spread

MIN logo
+1

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
425
274
Total Plays
74
50
Yards / Play
5.7
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.10
Passing Yards
285
197
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.22
Rushing Yards
140
77
Rush Attempts
35
17
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
25
14
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.28
--
Sacks
4
7
Sack Yards
-31
-59
Sack EPA
-4.91
-11.74
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-5.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model49.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+8.7
Away QB Adjustment
-5.2
Market Regression
+24.0
Final Difference
-1.0
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Value
Ptile
11/30
-1.6
38
12/07
0.9
56
12/14
1.5
61
12/21
-0.1
49
12/28
-3.5
28
09/14
-3.8
22
09/20
2.6
70
09/27
-6.3
10
10/04
-1.4
41
10/18
-5.8
12
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.7
Value
Ptile
12/14
-0.5
47
12/21
-10.2
3
12/28
2.2
67
01/04
0.5
52
09/13
-1.6
39
09/20
2.4
67
09/27
-2.5
33
10/05
1.3
60
10/11
-5.8
12
10/18
9.1
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
19
23
Yards / Game
29
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20

EPA

EPA / Play
11
24
EPA / Pass
24
23
EPA / Rush
4
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
9
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
13
12
Turnover EPA / Game
29
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
25
29
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
17

EPA

EPA / Play
15
12
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
19
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
6
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
11
25
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
10
RZ Efficiency
2
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
18
W
W
O
12/07
6
W
W
O
12/14
-2
L
W
U
12/21
-2
L
W
O
12/28
4
W
L
U
09/14
-17
L
L
U
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/27
17
W
W
U
10/04
-3
L
W
U
10/18
6
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
2
W
L
U
12/21
6
W
L
U
12/28
-10
L
L
O
01/04
-4
L
W
U
09/13
-5
L
L
O
09/20
-10
L
L
U
09/27
-12
L
L
U
10/05
-3
L
W
U
10/11
-25
L
L
O
10/18
3
W
L
O