MINVikings
4-2
42
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
030
DETLions
2-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
14
7
14
42
Lions
14
7
3
6
30
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
504
433
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
7.1
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.42
+0.19
Passing Yards
--
352
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
30/46(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.74
+0.26
Rushing Yards
166
81
Rush Attempts
37
20
Yards / Rush
4.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
26
Passing 1st downs
19
21
Rushing 1st downs
10
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
60%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
5
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-1.84
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-2.91
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
--
67
Penalty EPA
--
-7.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-46
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,594
Home Field
+38.5
Base HFA
+52.9
Divisional Adj
-23.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+9.4
Net QB Adjustment
+0.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.4
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
-33.3
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
19
31
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21
EPA
EPA / Play
10
23
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
12
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
10
18
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
16
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
16
6
EPA / Rush
27
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
19
4th Down Efficiency
24
22
RZ Efficiency
12
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Lions
4-5-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U