MINVikings
5-6
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
029
DETLions
0-10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
6
0
9
12
27
Lions
0
20
3
6
29
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
426
372
Total Plays
74
71
Yards / Play
5.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.01
Passing Yards
326
272
Comp/Att
30/42(71%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.09
Rushing Yards
100
100
Rush Attempts
29
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.34
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
19
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
46%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.68
-8.20
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-14
-24
Sack EPA
-9.12
-7.67
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
66
11
Penalty EPA
-7.79
-3.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-132
Home nfelo
1,380
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+28.0
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-21.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
31
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
24
Rushing Yards / Game
17
28
EPA
EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
12
29
EPA / Rush
26
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
19
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
10
30
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
24
Yards / Game
22
30
Passing Yards / Game
25
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
26
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
21
6
EPA / Rush
25
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
29
Interceptions / Game
14
12
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
11
RZ Efficiency
31
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
0-9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U