MINVikings
10-2
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
034
DETLions
5-7
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
6
10
23
Lions
7
7
7
13
34
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
416
464
Total Plays
63
69
Yards / Play
6.6
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.20
Passing Yards
394
--
Comp/Att
31/42(74%)
27/39(69%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.37
Rushing Yards
22
134
Rush Attempts
17
30
Yards / Rush
1.3
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.63
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
18
18
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.00
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-10.73
--
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
25
51
Penalty EPA
-4.85
-2.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model47.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+29.4
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+19.9
Home QB Adjustment
+9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-10.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-18.8
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.6
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
28
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
17
30
EPA / Pass
10
24
EPA / Rush
28
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
31
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
30
4th Down Efficiency
22
21
RZ Efficiency
8
26
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
4
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
21
EPA
EPA / Play
4
26
EPA / Pass
3
27
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
11
Interceptions / Game
2
12
Fumbles / Game
11
24
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
10
6
RZ Efficiency
4
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
Lions
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U