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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ lions week 15, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-7
14
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
16
DETLions
9-4
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
7
0
0
14
Lions
0
10
3
3
16

Spread

MIN logo
+8

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
360
233
Total Plays
66
50
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.23
Passing Yards
284
--
Comp/Att
31/41(76%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.07
Rushing Yards
76
80
Rush Attempts
21
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
21
11
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.61
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-6.51
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-4.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+20.6
Market Regression
+12.1
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
Value
Ptile
09/28
6.0
86
10/12
-13.6
0
10/19
-8.6
7
10/26
-1.2
42
11/02
1.5
61
11/16
-5.5
17
11/23
-0.1
49
11/30
-1.6
38
12/07
0.9
56
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Value
Ptile
09/28
4.3
79
10/05
-5.7
17
10/12
-4.9
21
10/19
-1.0
43
10/26
1.2
59
11/09
0.6
54
11/16
-6.8
11
11/23
-6.8
11
11/27
8.0
91
12/07
4.4
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
13
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1

EPA

EPA / Play
18
5
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
2
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
17
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24

EPA

EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
24
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
9
19
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
15
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
13
W
W
O
10/02
-32
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-1
L
W
U
10/26
6
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
W
O
11/16
-8
L
L
U
11/23
-3
L
W
U
11/30
18
W
W
O
12/07
6
W
W
O
DET logo

Lions

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
7
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
L
U
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
1
W
L
O
10/26
1
W
L
U
11/09
4
W
W
U
11/16
-8
L
L
U
11/23
-25
L
L
U
11/27
17
W
W
O
12/07
17
W
W
O