MINVikings
6-7
14
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
016
DETLions
9-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
7
0
0
14
Lions
0
10
3
3
16
Spread
+8
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
233
Total Plays
66
50
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.23
Passing Yards
284
--
Comp/Att
31/41(76%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.13
-0.07
Rushing Yards
76
80
Rush Attempts
21
22
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
11
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.61
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-6.51
--
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-4.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,572
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-19.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+20.6
Market Regression
+12.1
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
13
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1
EPA
EPA / Play
18
5
EPA / Pass
24
10
EPA / Rush
2
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
11
Interceptions / Game
26
6
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
13
11
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
11
Yards / Game
17
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24
EPA
EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
24
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
9
19
Fumbles / Game
8
27
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
15
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U