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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ lions week 16, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
7-6
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
9
DETLions
5-9
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
14
3
10
27
Lions
3
6
0
0
9

Spread

MIN logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
340
223
Total Plays
58
69
Yards / Play
5.9
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.36
Passing Yards
240
137
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
23/43(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
3.2
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.50
Rushing Yards
100
86
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
31%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-24
Sack EPA
-3.30
-7.83
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
78
55
Penalty EPA
-8.22
-5.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model66.4%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.9%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
-14.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
+1.7
Final Difference
-118.2
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
10/07
4.9
78
10/14
-0.2
45
10/21
2.0
62
10/28
2.3
65
11/04
-1.3
37
11/18
0.1
47
11/25
8.9
94
12/02
-3.0
27
12/10
-1.7
35
12/16
-2.1
33
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-14.8
Value
Ptile
10/07
-2.7
29
10/21
3.7
73
10/28
2.6
67
11/04
-9.9
3
11/11
-5.2
17
11/18
-0.3
44
11/22
-2.6
31
12/02
-5.2
17
12/09
-3.6
24
12/16
4.1
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
32
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
24
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14

EPA

EPA / Play
23
2
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
25
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
14
20
Fumbles / Game
18
19
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
9
6
RZ Efficiency
25
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
2
W
W
U
10/14
10
W
P
O
10/21
20
W
W
O
10/28
-10
L
L
U
11/04
15
W
W
U
11/18
-5
L
L
O
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/10
-14
L
L
U
12/16
24
W
W
O
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
8
W
W
O
10/21
11
W
W
O
10/28
-14
L
L
U
11/04
-15
L
L
U
11/11
-12
L
L
O
11/18
1
W
W
U
11/22
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
U
12/16
-1
L
W
U