MINVikings
7-6
27
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
09
DETLions
5-9
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
14
3
10
27
Lions
3
6
0
0
9
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
223
Total Plays
58
69
Yards / Play
5.9
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.36
Passing Yards
240
137
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
23/43(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
3.2
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.50
Rushing Yards
100
86
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
31%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
40%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-24
Sack EPA
-3.30
-7.83
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
78
55
Penalty EPA
-8.22
-5.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model67.0%
Spread Pick
Lions+6.5
Expected Value
+2.9%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-84
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
-14.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
-123.4
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
16
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
32
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
12
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
24
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
3
Rushing Yards / Game
23
14
EPA
EPA / Play
23
2
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
25
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
17
Interceptions / Game
14
20
Fumbles / Game
18
19
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
1
4th Down Efficiency
9
6
RZ Efficiency
25
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U