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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ lions week 17, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-9
13
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
20
DETLions
5-10
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
1
6
7
Lions
0
10
3
7
20

Spread

DET logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
211
357
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
3.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
137
250
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.12
Rushing Yards
74
107
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.38
-14.60
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-3.06
-1.85
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
25
33
Penalty EPA
-3.14
-4.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model63.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,465
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+69.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-66.3
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
97.3
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Webb headshot

J. Webb

Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-66.3
Value
Ptile
12/28
2.2
63
S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
10/25
-6.5
13
09/19
1.3
56
09/26
-0.3
47
10/03
5.3
84
10/10
6.0
87
10/17
-0.4
47
11/14
1.4
57
11/21
1.3
57
11/25
-2.1
35
12/26
2.3
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
29
19
Yards / Game
23
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24

EPA

EPA / Play
27
11
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
14
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
26
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
30
23
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
15
18
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9

EPA

EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
17
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
15
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
24
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
2
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-4
L
L
O
10/31
-10
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/14
-14
L
L
U
11/21
-28
L
L
U
11/28
4
W
W
U
12/05
24
W
W
O
12/13
-18
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O
12/28
10
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-8
L
W
O
10/31
12
W
W
O
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
-2
L
L
U
11/21
-16
L
L
O
11/25
-21
L
L
O
12/05
-4
L
W
O
12/12
4
W
W
U
12/19
3
W
W
P
12/26
7
W
W
O