MINVikings
6-9
13
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
5-10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
1
6
7
Lions
0
10
3
7
20
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
211
357
Total Plays
59
67
Yards / Play
3.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
137
250
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.12
Rushing Yards
74
107
Rush Attempts
24
27
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.38
-14.60
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-3.06
-1.85
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
25
33
Penalty EPA
-3.14
-4.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+126
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+69.7
Home QB Adjustment
+3.3
Away QB Adjustment
-66.3
Market Regression
+11.0
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Webb
Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-66.3
Value
Ptile
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
19
Yards / Game
23
21
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24
EPA
EPA / Play
27
11
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
14
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
26
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
15
9
RZ Efficiency
30
23
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
18
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
9
EPA
EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
19
10
EPA / Rush
17
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
15
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
18
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
24
4th Down Efficiency
7
19
RZ Efficiency
2
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U