MINVikings
2-3
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
58°F
4 mph
28
GBPackers
3-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
58°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
10
7
0
24
Packers
7
7
8
0
22
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
379
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
6.1
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.10
Passing Yards
206
--
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.15
Rushing Yards
196
84
Rush Attempts
36
23
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.07
-8.84
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-0.98
--
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
-1.26
-2.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+93
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-17.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.0
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
1
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
14
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
14
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9
EPA
EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
11
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
15
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U