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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ packers week 7, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Win total projections and results

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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-3
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
58°F
4 mph
28
GBPackers
3-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
58°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
10
7
0
24
Packers
7
7
8
0
22

Spread

GB logo
-3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
402
379
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
6.1
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.10
Passing Yards
206
--
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.15
Rushing Yards
196
84
Rush Attempts
36
23
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
43%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.07
-8.84
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-0.98
--
Penalties
6
2
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
-1.26
-2.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-17.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.0
Value
Ptile
12/20
-4.0
24
12/28
3.9
75
01/03
12.0
99
01/17
5.1
82
01/24
1.7
61
09/09
-2.2
33
09/19
-7.4
9
09/26
-4.2
22
10/11
-2.7
31
10/17
-2.2
34
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
12/20
11.6
98
12/27
0.3
52
01/03
8.5
93
01/10
9.8
96
09/12
-3.5
26
09/19
9.6
97
09/27
9.5
96
10/03
-0.4
47
10/10
-0.7
45
10/17
-0.4
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
1
Yards / Game
23
5
Passing Yards / Game
12
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
12

EPA

EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
14
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
14
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
4
RZ Efficiency
30
14
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
7
18
Yards / Game
9
8
Passing Yards / Game
7
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9

EPA

EPA / Play
4
9
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
11
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
15
Interceptions / Game
7
17
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
19
RZ Efficiency
4
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-19
L
L
U
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/03
37
W
W
O
01/17
31
W
W
U
01/24
-3
L
W
O
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-4
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-1
L
W
O
12/27
38
W
W
O
01/03
26
W
W
U
01/10
-6
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
27
W
W
U
09/27
-3
L
L
U
10/03
2
W
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-3
L
L
U