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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ packers week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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MIN logo
MINVikings
3-4
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
39°F
8 mph
10
GBPackers
2-4
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
39°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
3
14
0
24
Packers
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

MIN logo
+0

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
346
270
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.24
Passing Yards
284
196
Comp/Att
26/35(74%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.19
Rushing Yards
62
74
Rush Attempts
31
17
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.42
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
56%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.60
-4.75
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-13
-33
Sack EPA
-5.97
-6.32
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
35
99
Penalty EPA
-6.25
-9.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.7
Home QB Adjustment
-16.2
Away QB Adjustment
+11.6
Market Regression
-1.0
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Value
Ptile
01/01
-4.1
22
01/08
2.5
73
01/15
9.6
95
09/10
4.7
79
09/14
10.0
97
09/24
3.7
74
10/01
-5.3
18
10/08
1.1
55
10/15
-2.2
34
10/23
9.3
96
J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-16.2
Value
Ptile
11/07
-4.3
23
09/10
3.1
70
09/17
1.3
58
09/24
2.3
65
09/28
-5.9
15
10/09
-8.6
6
10/22
1.7
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
13
Yards / Game
11
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
29
28

EPA

EPA / Play
21
25
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
17
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
30
Interceptions / Game
29
28
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
5
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
28
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
29
13
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
8
12
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
25
28
Rushing Yards / Game
14
6

EPA

EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
2
21
EPA / Rush
14
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
5
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
17
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-24
L
L
O
01/08
16
W
W
U
01/15
-7
L
L
O
09/10
-3
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
P
O
09/24
-4
L
L
U
10/01
8
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/23
5
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
12
W
W
U
12/25
6
W
W
U
01/01
24
W
W
O
01/08
-4
L
L
U
09/10
18
W
W
O
09/17
-1
L
W
O
09/24
1
W
W
U
09/28
-14
L
L
O
10/09
-4
L
L
U
10/22
-2
L
L
U