MINVikings
2-6
7
TBD
Lambeau Field
47°F
13 mph
45
GBPackers
8-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
47°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
7
0
7
Packers
8
3
14
14
39
Spread
-13
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
356
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
4.5
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.20
+0.41
Passing Yards
162
266
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.66
Rushing Yards
104
90
Rush Attempts
22
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
36%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+3.55
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-28
-22
Sack EPA
-4.79
-3.28
Penalties
10
1
Penalty Yards
80
--
Penalty EPA
-10.57
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model83.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+235
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.5
Home QB Adjustment
+30.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
-8.4
Final Difference
287.2
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
Value
Ptile
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+30.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
18
32
Passing Yards / Game
17
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13
EPA
EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
2
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
24
24
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
3
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
31
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
10
EPA
EPA / Play
2
28
EPA / Pass
1
31
EPA / Rush
16
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
5
Interceptions / Game
2
31
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
31
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U