MINVikings
6-5
14
TBD
Lambeau Field
45°F
8 mph
23
GBPackers
7-4
TBD
Lambeau Field
45°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
14
0
0
14
Packers
10
0
10
3
23
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
435
Total Plays
53
73
Yards / Play
6.8
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.14
Passing Yards
--
283
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.34
Rushing Yards
240
152
Rush Attempts
28
36
Yards / Rush
8.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.38
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.92
-1.34
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-2.03
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
--
78
Penalty EPA
--
-8.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
Packers-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+220
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.2
Home QB Adjustment
-12.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.2
Market Regression
-43.8
Final Difference
181.1
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
4
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
10
EPA
EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
32
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
2
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U