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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ packers week 13, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-5
14
TBD
Lambeau Field
45°F
8 mph
23
GBPackers
7-4
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
45°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
14
0
0
14
Packers
10
0
10
3
23

Spread

GB logo
-7

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
359
435
Total Plays
53
73
Yards / Play
6.8
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.14
Passing Yards
--
283
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.34
Rushing Yards
240
152
Rush Attempts
28
36
Yards / Rush
8.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.38
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.92
-1.34
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-3
Sack EPA
--
-2.03
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
--
78
Penalty EPA
--
-8.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+220
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-10.2
Home QB Adjustment
-12.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.2
Market Regression
-43.8
Final Difference
181.1
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Value
Ptile
09/16
2.5
65
09/23
6.9
90
09/30
-5.3
17
10/07
2.7
67
10/14
0.5
53
10/21
-9.4
3
10/25
-4.1
24
11/04
-9.3
3
11/11
3.8
74
11/25
-4.1
24
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Value
Ptile
09/13
-4.4
23
09/24
-4.8
20
09/30
9.6
96
10/07
1.9
62
10/14
14.1
99
10/21
9.1
94
10/28
0.0
50
11/04
3.9
75
11/18
-0.7
45
11/25
-4.8
20

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
13
Yards / Game
20
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
22
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25

EPA

EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
4
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
16
4
RZ Efficiency
17
28
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
10

EPA

EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
20
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
21
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
32
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
2
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
11
W
W
U
09/30
7
W
W
U
10/07
23
W
W
U
10/14
-12
L
L
O
10/21
7
W
P
U
10/25
-19
L
L
O
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
10
W
W
O
11/25
-18
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
13
W
W
U
09/24
-2
L
L
U
09/30
1
W
L
O
10/07
-3
L
L
O
10/14
18
W
W
O
10/21
10
W
W
O
10/28
9
W
L
U
11/04
14
W
W
O
11/18
4
W
W
U
11/25
-28
L
L
U