MINVikings
10-5
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
24°F
11 mph
13
GBPackers
10-5
TBD
Lambeau Field
24°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
3
8
0
14
Packers
3
0
0
10
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
242
350
Total Plays
49
75
Yards / Play
4.9
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.17
Passing Yards
91
274
Comp/Att
10/19(53%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.47
-0.29
Rushing Yards
151
76
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
5.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.29
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
19
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
18%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.21
-11.77
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-3.03
-14.54
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
37
54
Penalty EPA
-3.19
-5.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,593
Away nfelo
1,564
Home Field
+52.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-40.8
Home QB Adjustment
-31.3
Away QB Adjustment
+9.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+9.5
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-31.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
11
Yards / Game
29
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
8
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19
EPA
EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
24
7
EPA / Rush
4
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
4
8
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
25
13
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
18
11
EPA / Rush
8
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
2
16
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
10
RZ Efficiency
16
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U