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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ packers week 17, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIN logo
MINVikings
7-8
10
TBD
Lambeau Field
11°F
9 mph
37
GBPackers
12-3
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
11°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
7
0
10
Packers
3
17
10
7
37

Spread

GB logo
-7

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
206
481
Total Plays
52
74
Yards / Play
4.0
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.23
Passing Yards
179
--
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
31/42(74%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.23
Rushing Yards
27
174
Rush Attempts
11
32
Yards / Rush
2.5
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
11
29
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
7
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-2.83
--
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
23
--
Penalty EPA
-2.92
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model79.2%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+25.5%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+282
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+155.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.0
Away QB Adjustment
-135.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
232.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

S. Mannion headshot

S. Mannion

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-135.9
Value
Ptile
12/31
-5.5
17
12/29
-7.1
12
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.0
Value
Ptile
10/10
2.4
71
10/17
2.7
73
10/24
4.5
82
10/28
-0.1
52
11/14
-1.6
41
11/21
10.6
97
11/28
6.7
90
12/12
7.8
93
12/19
4.5
82
12/25
5.2
84

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
15
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10

EPA

EPA / Play
18
22
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
26
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
30
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
7
RZ Efficiency
10
23
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
12
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
26

EPA

EPA / Play
3
15
EPA / Pass
3
6
EPA / Rush
7
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
6
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
9
11
RZ Efficiency
18
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
6
W
W
O
10/31
-4
L
L
U
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
7
W
W
U
11/21
3
W
W
O
11/28
-8
L
L
O
12/05
-2
L
L
O
12/09
8
W
W
O
12/20
8
W
W
U
12/26
-7
L
L
O
GB logo

Packers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
10
W
W
U
10/24
14
W
W
U
10/28
3
W
W
U
11/07
-6
L
W
U
11/14
17
W
W
U
11/21
-3
L
L
O
11/28
8
W
W
O
12/12
15
W
W
O
12/19
1
W
L
O
12/25
2
W
L
U