MINVikings
12-3
17
TBD
Lambeau Field
39°F
7 mph
41
GBPackers
7-8
TBD
Lambeau Field
39°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
0
0
14
17
Packers
8
13
0
14
35
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
346
315
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
6.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.13
Passing Yards
244
152
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.06
Rushing Yards
102
163
Rush Attempts
20
33
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
42%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-22.93
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-16
Sack EPA
-6.94
-4.64
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
35
30
Penalty EPA
-4.25
-3.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+74
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+37.5
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
-18.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.9
Home QB Adjustment
-26.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-26.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
16
Yards / Game
5
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
26
EPA
EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
26
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
10
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
23
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
30
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
21
EPA
EPA / Play
16
26
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
10
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
11
Interceptions / Game
10
12
Fumbles / Game
9
24
Turnover EPA / Game
17
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
22
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U