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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ panthers week 3, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-0
22
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
80°F
0
10
CARPanthers
1-1
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
80°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
8
6
14
Panthers
10
0
0
0
10

Spread

MIN logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
213
306
Total Plays
55
72
Yards / Play
3.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.32
Passing Yards
153
201
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
22/36(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.44
Rushing Yards
60
105
Rush Attempts
25
28
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.04
Sacks
2
8
Sack Yards
-18
-64
Sack EPA
-4.43
-10.65
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
42
65
Penalty EPA
-2.08
-7.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+88.8
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-22.9
Home QB Adjustment
+16.4
Away QB Adjustment
+39.3
Market Regression
-5.6
Final Difference
148.0
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+39.3
Value
Ptile
10/19
-4.4
18
10/25
-8.0
4
11/08
3.0
73
11/15
-1.3
41
12/06
-1.1
43
12/13
-1.1
44
12/20
2.7
70
12/26
1.1
57
01/03
3.7
78
09/18
1.9
64
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
Value
Ptile
12/06
9.3
96
12/13
4.1
79
12/20
11.4
99
12/27
-0.8
46
01/03
6.3
88
01/17
-0.5
48
01/24
10.6
97
02/07
-7.0
7
09/08
0.3
52
09/18
8.6
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Panthers Defense
Vikings logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
26
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
30
32
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7

EPA

EPA / Play
23
11
EPA / Pass
14
17
EPA / Rush
32
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
14
Interceptions / Game
2
4
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
27
RZ Efficiency
29
2
Panthers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Panthers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
15
5
Yards / Game
19
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
4
Rushing Yards / Game
10
19

EPA

EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
14
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
10
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
16
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
2
RZ Efficiency
11
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-17
L
L
U
11/29
10
W
W
U
12/06
-31
L
L
O
12/10
-3
L
W
U
12/20
21
W
W
O
12/27
32
W
W
O
01/03
7
W
W
U
01/10
-1
L
W
U
09/11
9
W
W
O
09/18
3
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
38
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/27
-7
L
L
U
01/03
28
W
W
O
01/17
7
W
W
O
01/24
34
W
W
O
02/07
-14
L
L
U
09/08
-1
L
L
O
09/18
19
W
W
O