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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ panthers week 4, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
0-3
21
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
78°F
7 mph
13
CARPanthers
0-3
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
78°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
7
8
0
15
Panthers
1
6
0
0
7

Spread

MIN logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
265
232
Total Plays
44
68
Yards / Play
6.0
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.24
Passing Yards
130
149
Comp/Att
12/19(63%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.57
-0.41
Rushing Yards
135
83
Rush Attempts
23
31
Yards / Rush
5.9
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
13%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-16.37
-10.27
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-9
-55
Sack EPA
-2.53
-19.53
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
37
80
Penalty EPA
-6.08
-7.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model57.4%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.9%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+66.2
Base HFA
+43.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+7.8
Net QB Adjustment
-26.4
Home QB Adjustment
-8.0
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
-17.3
Final Difference
-51.8
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Value
Ptile
12/04
-1.6
42
12/11
5.6
88
12/17
1.0
59
12/24
4.2
82
01/01
-4.1
22
01/08
2.5
73
01/15
9.6
95
09/10
4.7
79
09/14
10.0
97
09/24
3.7
74
B. Young headshot

B. Young

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.0
Value
Ptile
09/10
-8.3
8
09/18
-0.2
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Panthers Defense
Vikings logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
29
Yards / Game
11
3
Passing Yards / Game
2
1
Rushing Yards / Game
29
23

EPA

EPA / Play
21
27
EPA / Pass
17
17
EPA / Rush
17
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
29
29
Fumbles / Game
29
32
Turnover EPA / Game
5
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
14
4th Down Efficiency
8
31
RZ Efficiency
29
28
Panthers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Panthers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
31
12
Yards / Game
32
16
Passing Yards / Game
28
28
Rushing Yards / Game
20
6

EPA

EPA / Play
29
16
EPA / Pass
30
21
EPA / Rush
18
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
10
Interceptions / Game
6
19
Fumbles / Game
22
8
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
32
RZ Efficiency
21
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
5
W
W
O
12/11
-11
L
L
O
12/17
3
W
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
O
01/01
-24
L
L
O
01/08
16
W
W
U
01/15
-7
L
L
O
09/10
-3
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
P
O
09/24
-4
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-10
L
W
U
11/27
13
W
W
U
12/11
6
W
W
O
12/18
-8
L
L
O
12/24
14
W
W
O
01/01
-6
L
L
O
01/08
3
W
W
U
09/10
-14
L
L
U
09/18
-3
L
P
U
09/24
-10
L
L
O