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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ raiders week 10, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-2
30
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
31 mph
14
OAKRaiders
4-4
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
31 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
10
10
0
10
30
Raiders
0
14
0
0
14

Spread

MIN logo
+3

Total

PUSH
44
P

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
385
371
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
6.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.27
-0.09
Passing Yards
122
287
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.09
Rushing Yards
263
84
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
8.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.39
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
13
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.48
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-18
-15
Sack EPA
-5.41
-3.34
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
15
82
Penalty EPA
-1.75
-6.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+84.0
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.2
Home QB Adjustment
+32.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Value
Ptile
12/21
-0.1
49
12/28
-3.5
28
09/14
-3.8
22
09/20
2.6
70
09/27
-6.3
10
10/04
-1.4
41
10/18
-5.8
12
10/25
1.9
64
11/01
-2.6
31
11/08
-0.7
47
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+32.7
Value
Ptile
12/21
1.6
62
12/28
-7.2
10
09/13
-4.1
20
09/20
8.0
94
09/27
5.9
87
10/04
-2.8
31
10/11
-2.1
34
10/25
7.2
92
11/01
9.4
96
11/08
4.3
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Raiders Defense
Vikings logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
19
22
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
13

EPA

EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
4
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
4
15
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
19
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Raiders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Raiders logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
17

EPA

EPA / Play
19
12
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
20
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
6
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
27
10
RZ Efficiency
8
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-2
L
W
O
12/28
4
W
L
U
09/14
-17
L
L
U
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/27
17
W
W
U
10/04
-3
L
W
U
10/18
6
W
W
U
10/25
9
W
W
O
11/01
3
W
W
U
11/08
3
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
2
W
W
O
12/28
-33
L
L
O
09/13
-20
L
L
O
09/20
4
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
-2
L
L
U
10/11
-6
L
L
U
10/25
8
W
W
O
11/01
14
W
W
O
11/08
-3
L
W
O