MINVikings
6-2
30
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
31 mph
14
OAKRaiders
4-4
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
62°F
31 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
10
10
0
10
30
Raiders
0
14
0
0
14
Spread
+3
Total
PUSH
44
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
371
Total Plays
59
64
Yards / Play
6.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.27
-0.09
Passing Yards
122
287
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.09
Rushing Yards
263
84
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
8.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.39
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
13
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.48
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-18
-15
Sack EPA
-5.41
-3.34
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
15
82
Penalty EPA
-1.75
-6.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+83.3
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+31.2
Home QB Adjustment
+32.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.5
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+32.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
22
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
13
EPA
EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
24
14
EPA / Rush
4
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
4
15
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
19
RZ Efficiency
25
10
Raiders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
5
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
17
EPA
EPA / Play
19
12
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
20
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
6
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
12
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
27
10
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
2-8
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U