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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ raiders week 14, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-6
3
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
0
OAKRaiders
5-7
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
0
3
3
Raiders
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

MIN logo
OAK logo
3
P

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
231
202
Total Plays
71
53
Yards / Play
3.3
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.52
Passing Yards
99
146
Comp/Att
19/36(53%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
2.8
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.34
-0.74
Rushing Yards
132
56
Rush Attempts
30
17
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
16
8
Passing 1st downs
9
5
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
20
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-8.87
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-47
-25
Sack EPA
-9.48
-6.02
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
36
37
Penalty EPA
-2.97
-4.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model58.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+38.9
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.0
Away Bye Adj
-35.3
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.1
Home QB Adjustment
-44.3
Away QB Adjustment
-59.3
Market Regression
-42.5
Final Difference
-58.5
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Dobbs headshot

R. Dobbs

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-59.3
Value
Ptile
09/17
7.3
92
09/24
5.1
82
10/01
7.2
92
10/08
-7.8
9
10/15
-2.6
32
10/22
-2.6
32
10/29
2.2
65
11/12
7.8
93
11/19
0.1
50
11/27
-8.5
7
A. O'Connell headshot

A. O'Connell

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-44.3
Value
Ptile
10/01
-6.9
11
11/05
-0.3
47
11/12
-5.0
20
11/19
-5.7
16
11/26
3.2
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Raiders Defense
Vikings logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
22
7
Yards / Game
11
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20

EPA

EPA / Play
21
5
EPA / Pass
17
9
EPA / Rush
17
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
20
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
29
21
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
29
27
Raiders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Raiders logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
23
12
Yards / Game
27
16
Passing Yards / Game
32
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
6

EPA

EPA / Play
24
16
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
26
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
28
19
Fumbles / Game
10
8
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
24
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-4
L
L
U
10/01
8
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/23
5
W
W
U
10/29
14
W
W
U
11/05
3
W
W
O
11/12
8
W
W
O
11/19
-1
L
W
U
11/27
-2
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-7
L
P
U
10/09
4
W
W
U
10/15
4
W
W
U
10/22
-18
L
L
O
10/30
-12
L
L
U
11/05
24
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/19
-7
L
W
U
11/26
-14
L
L
O