MINVikings
-
34
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
06
LARRams
-
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
10
7
8
28
Rams
0
0
3
3
6
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
318
Total Plays
57
63
Yards / Play
6.2
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.40
Passing Yards
--
246
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.50
Rushing Yards
185
72
Rush Attempts
32
22
Yards / Rush
5.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
15
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
25%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-14.15
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-7.50
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
60
121
Penalty EPA
-5.25
-12.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.1
Away QB Adjustment
-8.5
Market Regression
-56.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
16
Yards / Game
26
18
Passing Yards / Game
26
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
18
6
EPA / Pass
24
12
EPA / Rush
2
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
8
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
15
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
13
5
Rams Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
11
Yards / Game
27
14
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
20
24
EPA
EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
28
18
EPA / Rush
29
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
19
19
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
2
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
22
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-5-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Rams
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U