MINVikings
4-0
38
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
010
LARRams
0-4
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
8
3
7
14
32
Rams
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-10.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
400
Total Plays
53
70
Yards / Play
7.1
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.41
-0.16
Passing Yards
288
278
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
10.7
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.54
-0.18
Rushing Yards
89
122
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
64%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
4
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-3.81
-24.80
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-12
-19
Sack EPA
-1.91
-8.85
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
44
82
Penalty EPA
-4.38
-10.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market81.3%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
Rams+10.5
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-217
Home nfelo
1,302
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
+17.3
Market Regression
+1.9
Final Difference
-247.4
Model Spread
+10.0
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.3
K. Boller
Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
31
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27
EPA
EPA / Play
5
31
EPA / Pass
3
30
EPA / Rush
32
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
7
Interceptions / Game
1
31
Fumbles / Game
24
7
Turnover EPA / Game
25
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
29
4th Down Efficiency
8
15
RZ Efficiency
3
29
Rams Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
8
Yards / Game
29
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
24
Rushing Yards / Game
19
1
EPA
EPA / Play
32
3
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
30
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
29
27
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
2
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-1-6
O/U
Rams
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
1-3-6
O/U