MINVikings
7-6
36
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
022
LARRams
6-6
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
17
3
3
30
Rams
0
7
0
15
22
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
434
Total Plays
59
78
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.14
Passing Yards
109
347
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
35/56(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.04
Rushing Yards
213
87
Rush Attempts
33
18
Yards / Rush
6.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
29
Passing 1st downs
9
23
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
18%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-11.68
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-22
-32
Sack EPA
-3.34
-7.09
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
49
47
Penalty EPA
-5.35
-6.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.7
Home QB Adjustment
+15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-7.8
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
14
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
3
15
EPA
EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
22
9
EPA / Rush
4
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
8
11
Fumbles / Game
21
32
Turnover EPA / Game
20
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
6
RZ Efficiency
17
9
Rams Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
22
15
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
25
15
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
22
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
9
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
24
RZ Efficiency
19
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Rams
5-4-1
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U