MINVikings
-
9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
014
NOSaints
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
9
0
0
9
Saints
7
0
7
0
14
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
253
308
Total Plays
51
62
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.09
Passing Yards
162
229
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.03
Rushing Yards
91
79
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.20
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-8
Sack EPA
-2.07
-1.82
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-7.71
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model62.7%
Spread Pick
Vikings+5.5
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,585
Away nfelo
1,609
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
90.2
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
10
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
10
18
EPA
EPA / Play
27
16
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
14
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
30
Interceptions / Game
32
32
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
5
8
Passing Yards / Game
2
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9
EPA
EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
21
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
15
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
20
22
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
19
19
RZ Efficiency
19
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U