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  1. nfelo...
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  3. vikings @ saints week 1, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
-
9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
14
NOSaints
-
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
9
0
0
9
Saints
7
0
7
0
14

Spread

MIN logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
253
308
Total Plays
51
62
Yards / Play
5.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.09
Passing Yards
162
229
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.03
Rushing Yards
91
79
Rush Attempts
23
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.20
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-8
Sack EPA
-2.07
-1.82
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-7.71
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model62.7%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+46
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,607
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
90.5
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
11/15
4.3
78
11/22
7.4
90
11/29
10.2
97
12/06
0.3
53
12/13
-1.5
40
12/20
-4.0
24
12/28
3.9
75
01/03
12.0
99
01/17
5.1
82
01/24
1.7
61
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.9
Value
Ptile
11/15
0.1
50
11/22
5.5
85
11/30
14.0
99
12/06
9.7
96
12/13
9.2
95
12/19
-0.0
49
12/27
7.9
92
01/16
7.4
90
01/24
3.0
69
02/07
8.6
94

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Vikings logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
29
10
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
12
5
Rushing Yards / Game
10
18

EPA

EPA / Play
27
16
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
14
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
30
Interceptions / Game
32
32
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
2
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
15
28
RZ Efficiency
30
5
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Saints logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
8
18
Yards / Game
5
8
Passing Yards / Game
2
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9

EPA

EPA / Play
8
9
EPA / Pass
6
10
EPA / Rush
21
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
15
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
20
22
Turnover EPA / Game
13
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
19
19
RZ Efficiency
19
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
17
W
P
U
11/22
26
W
W
U
11/29
26
W
W
U
12/06
-13
L
L
U
12/13
20
W
W
U
12/20
-19
L
L
U
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/03
37
W
W
O
01/17
31
W
W
U
01/24
-3
L
W
O
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
31
W
W
U
11/30
21
W
W
U
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
3
W
L
U
12/19
-7
L
L
U
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
-13
L
L
U
01/16
31
W
W
O
01/24
3
W
L
O
02/07
14
W
W
U