MINVikings
1-1
9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
020
NOSaints
0-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
6
3
0
9
Saints
13
0
0
7
20
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
247
396
Total Plays
54
68
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.13
Passing Yards
188
288
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.57
Rushing Yards
59
108
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
27
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-5
Sack EPA
-2.90
-1.11
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
44
30
Penalty EPA
-6.63
-4.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.8
Home QB Adjustment
+6.8
Away QB Adjustment
-16.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
232.7
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
28
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
26
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29
EPA
EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
24
30
EPA / Rush
2
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
23
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
13
31
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
11
Yards / Game
1
14
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24
EPA
EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
7
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
25
19
Fumbles / Game
28
27
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
7
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-4-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U