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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ saints week 3, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIN logo
MINVikings
1-1
9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
20
NOSaints
0-2
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
6
3
0
9
Saints
13
0
0
7
20

Spread

NO logo
-10

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
247
396
Total Plays
54
68
Yards / Play
4.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.13
Passing Yards
188
288
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.57
Rushing Yards
59
108
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
13
27
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
6
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-5
Sack EPA
-2.90
-1.11
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
44
30
Penalty EPA
-6.63
-4.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+22.8
Home QB Adjustment
+6.8
Away QB Adjustment
-16.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
232.6
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-16.0
Value
Ptile
11/12
-6.0
13
11/18
-4.9
19
09/29
4.1
79
10/13
-1.3
43
12/08
2.3
67
12/15
8.1
92
12/22
-11.2
2
12/29
-4.2
23
09/07
1.9
64
09/14
-13.2
0
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Value
Ptile
11/21
2.9
69
12/02
0.1
50
12/08
9.5
95
12/15
3.2
72
12/22
-4.0
25
12/29
14.1
99
01/04
-2.5
36
01/11
4.4
81
09/07
3.7
75
09/14
0.8
55

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Vikings logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
20
28
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
26
25
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29

EPA

EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
24
30
EPA / Rush
2
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
23
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
20
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
19
RZ Efficiency
13
31
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Saints logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
10
11
Yards / Game
1
14
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24

EPA

EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
7
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
25
19
Fumbles / Game
28
27
Turnover EPA / Game
4
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
7
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-4-1
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
7
W
W
O
11/17
-21
L
L
O
11/24
0
T
W
O
12/01
3
W
W
U
12/08
-3
L
W
O
12/15
18
W
W
O
12/22
-28
L
L
O
12/29
1
W
W
U
09/07
28
W
W
U
09/14
-23
L
L
U
NO logo

Saints

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
4
W
L
U
12/02
-27
L
L
U
12/08
18
W
W
U
12/15
-11
L
L
U
12/22
-4
L
L
U
12/29
25
W
W
O
01/04
2
W
W
U
01/11
-8
L
W
U
09/07
-3
L
L
O
09/14
-2
L
L
O