MINVikings
2-1
28
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
70°F
025
NOSaints
1-2
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
6
3
12
28
Saints
0
7
7
11
25
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
340
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
5.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.17
Passing Yards
263
229
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.26
Rushing Yards
81
111
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.67
-4.82
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-9
Sack EPA
-5.88
-6.56
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
--
102
Penalty EPA
--
-12.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-45.5
Home QB Adjustment
-49.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-49.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
9
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24
EPA
EPA / Play
17
9
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
28
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
18
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
30
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
19
21
EPA
EPA / Play
24
26
EPA / Pass
13
27
EPA / Rush
29
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
25
24
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Saints
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U