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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ saints week 4, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-1
28
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
70°F
0
25
NOSaints
1-2
NO logo
TBD
Tottenham Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
6
3
12
28
Saints
0
7
7
11
25

Spread

NO logo
+4

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
344
340
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
5.1
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.17
Passing Yards
263
229
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.26
Rushing Yards
81
111
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
--
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.67
-4.82
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-9
Sack EPA
-5.88
-6.56
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
--
102
Penalty EPA
--
-12.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-81
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,528
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-45.5
Home QB Adjustment
-49.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
11/21
6.4
89
11/28
-0.4
50
12/05
3.6
79
12/09
-2.5
34
12/20
-9.1
6
12/26
2.1
68
01/09
1.7
65
09/11
5.3
86
09/19
-6.2
13
09/25
0.6
56
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-49.2
Value
Ptile
12/13
-1.2
36
12/20
-0.3
43
12/27
5.1
78
01/03
-5.9
11
09/12
-2.4
35
09/19
-3.0
32
11/25
-1.1
44
12/05
-7.0
11
01/02
-6.1
14
01/09
-5.6
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Vikings logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
8
9
Yards / Game
5
5
Passing Yards / Game
3
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24

EPA

EPA / Play
17
9
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
28
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
18
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
24
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
8
5
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Saints logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
22
30
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
19
21

EPA

EPA / Play
24
26
EPA / Pass
13
27
EPA / Rush
29
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
25
24
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
21
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-8
L
L
O
12/05
-2
L
L
O
12/09
8
W
W
O
12/20
8
W
W
U
12/26
-7
L
L
O
01/02
-27
L
L
O
01/09
14
W
W
O
09/11
16
W
W
U
09/19
-17
L
L
U
09/25
4
W
L
P
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-25
L
L
U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
12/12
21
W
W
U
12/19
9
W
W
U
12/27
-17
L
L
U
01/02
8
W
W
U
01/09
10
W
W
O
09/11
1
W
L
O
09/18
-10
L
L
U
09/25
-8
L
L
U