MINVikings
13-4
28
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
14-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
14
0
7
7
0
28
Saints
7
7
7
7
3
31
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
475
257
Total Plays
82
55
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.15
Passing Yards
--
189
Comp/Att
28/46(61%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.18
Rushing Yards
165
68
Rush Attempts
36
23
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
15
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
58%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-17.50
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.31
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
32
88
Penalty EPA
-3.63
-9.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model57.1%
Spread Pick
Vikings+4.0
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,681
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+30.9
Away QB Adjustment
+36.2
Market Regression
+5.5
Final Difference
49.7
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+36.2
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+30.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
32
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
30
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
24
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
8
Yards / Game
1
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
10
1
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
12
EPA / Rush
7
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
19
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
4
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U