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  1. nfelo...
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  3. vikings @ saints week 20, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIN logo
MINVikings
13-4
28
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
31
NOSaints
14-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
14
0
7
7
0
28
Saints
7
7
7
7
3
31

Spread

MIN logo
+4

Total

OVER
54

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
475
257
Total Plays
82
55
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.15
Passing Yards
--
189
Comp/Att
28/46(61%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.18
Rushing Yards
165
68
Rush Attempts
36
23
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
31
15
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
58%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
6
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-17.50
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.31
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
32
88
Penalty EPA
-3.63
-9.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model57.6%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.3%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,679
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+30.9
Away QB Adjustment
+36.2
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
53.3
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+36.2
Value
Ptile
11/01
8.6
94
11/15
4.3
78
11/22
7.4
90
11/29
10.2
97
12/06
0.3
53
12/13
-1.5
40
12/20
-4.0
24
12/28
3.9
75
01/03
12.0
99
01/17
5.1
82
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+30.9
Value
Ptile
11/02
4.1
77
11/08
4.4
79
11/15
0.1
50
11/22
5.5
85
11/30
14.0
99
12/06
9.7
96
12/13
9.2
95
12/19
-0.0
49
12/27
7.9
92
01/16
7.4
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Saints Defense
Vikings logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
6
28
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22

EPA

EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
32
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
30
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
24
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
3
3
Saints Offense vs Vikings Defense
Saints logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
1
8
Yards / Game
1
4
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
10
1

EPA

EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
12
EPA / Rush
7
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
19
Interceptions / Game
5
27
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
4
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
12
W
W
O
11/15
17
W
P
U
11/22
26
W
W
U
11/29
26
W
W
U
12/06
-13
L
L
U
12/13
20
W
W
U
12/20
-19
L
L
U
12/28
-6
L
L
O
01/03
37
W
W
O
01/17
31
W
W
U
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
10
W
L
U
11/15
5
W
L
O
11/22
31
W
W
U
11/30
21
W
W
U
12/06
3
W
L
O
12/13
3
W
L
U
12/19
-7
L
L
U
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
-13
L
L
U
01/16
31
W
W
O