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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ seahawks week 9, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
5-3
20
TBD
Lumen Field
60°F
5 mph
30
SEASeahawks
4-4
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
60°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
10
3
0
20
Seahawks
14
6
7
3
30

Spread

SEA logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
287
385
Total Plays
53
71
Yards / Play
5.4
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.23
Passing Yards
44
190
Comp/Att
11/22(50%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
2.0
7.6
EPA / Pass
-0.47
+0.47
Rushing Yards
243
195
Rush Attempts
27
45
Yards / Rush
9.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.41
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
16
28
Passing 1st downs
4
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
30%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.39
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-19
-8
Sack EPA
-5.78
-1.07
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
--
49
Penalty EPA
--
-4.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,442
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
+26.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
12/24
-3.4
29
01/01
-8.8
3
09/09
1.4
60
09/16
2.5
65
09/23
6.9
90
09/30
-5.3
17
10/07
2.7
67
10/14
0.5
53
10/21
-9.4
3
10/25
-4.1
24
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Value
Ptile
09/09
-5.3
16
09/16
0.8
55
09/24
0.1
50
09/30
-7.8
7
10/07
-2.5
33
10/14
4.3
77
10/18
-7.6
7
10/28
3.9
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
17
1
Yards / Game
20
3
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11

EPA

EPA / Play
14
5
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
4
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
18
Interceptions / Game
8
6
Fumbles / Game
21
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
2
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Seahawks Offense vs Vikings Defense
Seahawks logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
23
30
Rushing Yards / Game
4
10

EPA

EPA / Play
2
15
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
5
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
21
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
24
RZ Efficiency
15
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
7
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
L
U
09/09
3
W
L
O
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
11
W
W
U
09/30
7
W
W
U
10/07
23
W
W
U
10/14
-12
L
L
O
10/21
7
W
P
U
10/25
-19
L
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-2
L
L
U
01/01
-3
L
L
O
09/09
-4
L
L
U
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/24
2
W
W
U
09/30
-6
L
L
U
10/07
4
W
W
U
10/14
1
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
W
U
10/28
-4
L
L
O