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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ seahawks week 11, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-7
20
TBD
Lumen Field
50°F
14 mph
41
SEASeahawks
9-1
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
50°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
10
0
7
20
Seahawks
10
14
0
11
35

Spread

SEA logo
-13

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
336
323
Total Plays
70
50
Yards / Play
4.8
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.23
Passing Yards
204
230
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
14/21(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
11.0
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.52
Rushing Yards
132
93
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.97
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-3
-6
Sack EPA
-4.99
-2.19
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
20
96
Penalty EPA
-2.07
-12.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0

Win Probability

Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+281
Home nfelo
1,648
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0

Quarterbacks

C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Value
Ptile
12/09
-5.4
16
12/16
-0.7
44
12/23
2.4
65
12/30
5.8
86
09/08
-6.2
13
09/15
-1.1
44
09/22
-0.7
45
10/27
0.1
50
11/03
2.1
65
11/07
1.6
61
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Value
Ptile
09/08
4.3
80
09/15
-7.4
10
09/22
2.9
70
09/29
-5.2
18
10/06
4.1
78
10/13
5.2
84
10/17
4.0
78
10/28
-6.0
14
11/03
3.9
76
11/10
5.8
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Vikings logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
9
7

EPA

EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
27
1
EPA / Rush
1
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
16
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
29
13
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
9
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
17
2
Seahawks Offense vs Vikings Defense
Seahawks logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
22
31
Passing Yards / Game
28
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
16

EPA

EPA / Play
12
29
EPA / Pass
4
29
EPA / Rush
21
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
11
Interceptions / Game
2
25
Fumbles / Game
21
27
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
30
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
14
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
-14
L
L
U
09/08
-10
L
L
O
09/15
-1
L
W
O
09/22
-4
L
L
O
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/13
-25
L
L
O
10/21
-16
L
L
U
10/27
-13
L
L
O
11/03
-4
L
W
U
11/07
7
W
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
5
W
W
U
09/15
26
W
W
U
09/22
28
W
W
O
09/29
3
W
W
O
10/06
-6
L
L
O
10/13
7
W
L
U
10/17
12
W
W
O
10/28
5
W
L
U
11/03
3
W
L
O
11/10
23
W
W
U