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  1. nfelo...
  2. qbs...
  3. patrick-mahomes...
  4. 2021

Season Overview

Season Stats

EPA Percentile

Game Log

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Model

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Patrick Mahomes headshot

Patrick Mahomes

2021 Season
OverviewCareer StatsSeason Stats

Bio

Career Summary

nfelo QB Value

Season Overview

Season Stats

EPA Percentile

Game Log

Season Overview

Total EPA
168
1st in the NFL
Total Yards
5,236
3rd in the NFL
Total TDs
39
6th in the NFL

Season Stats

Total EPA
+168
1st
EPA / DB
+0.21
5th
Success Rate
53.2%
2nd
CPOE
+2.7%
11th
ANY/A
7.1
14th
QBR
67.7
7th
Passer Rating
98.5
18th
Passing Yards
4,839
4th
Yards / Attempt
7.4
20th
Passing TDs
37
6th
Interceptions
13
50th
Rushing Yards
397
6th
Yards / Carry
8.1
5th
Rushing TDs
2
17th

EPA Percentile

Game Log

Week / Opponent
Status
EPA / DB
EPA
Tot Yds
Tot TD
INT
Rating
Elo Value
1
CLE logo
CLE
H
Start
+0.54
+23.9
357
4
--
131.4
+230.6
2
BAL logo
BAL
A
Start
+0.54
+17.7
346
3
1
131.5
+205.3
3
LAC logo
LAC
H
Start
+0.11
+5.9
305
3
2
81.6
+66.2
4
PHI logo
PHI
A
Start
+0.65
+24.5
305
5
1
131.0
+223.1
5
BUF logo
BUF
H
Start
+0.06
+4.3
333
2
2
70.9
+75.5
6
WAS logo
WAS
A
Start
+0.28
+16.0
428
2
2
90.5
+65.2
7
TEN logo
TEN
A
Start
-0.17
-8.0
242
0
1
62.3
-160.9
8
NYG logo
NYG
H
Start
-0.03
-1.5
286
1
1
74.6
-52.1
9
GB logo
GB
H
Start
-0.16
-6.5
166
1
--
74.8
-76.6
10
OAK logo
OAK
A
Start
+0.50
+24.9
406
5
--
127.6
+331.9
11
DAL logo
DAL
H
Start
-0.22
-10.2
273
0
1
71.9
-111.7
12BYE WEEK
13
DEN logo
DEN
H
Start
-0.15
-5.1
198
1
1
57.3
-77.6
14
OAK logo
OAK
H
Start
+0.57
+22.4
278
2
--
139.2
+54.5
15
LAC logo
LAC
A
Start
+0.24
+12.6
443
3
1
105.8
+233.5
16
PIT logo
PIT
H
Start
+0.50
+16.5
258
3
--
135.1
+146.9
17
CIN logo
CIN
A
Start
+0.35
+14.0
284
2
--
113.9
+165.0
18
DEN logo
DEN
A
Start
+0.31
+16.3
328
2
--
93.9
+154.2