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  4. 2009
ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2009 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
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    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
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    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-7
nfelo Rating
154115th
Point Diff / Game
+2.414th
Net EPA / Play
+0.03714th

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIA logo
MIA
W
19-07
+12
-4
W
11
2
CAR logo
CAR
W
28-20
+8
-6
W
21
3
NE logo
NE@
L
10-26
-16
+4.5
L
-13
4BYE WEEK
5
SF logo
SF@
W
45-10
+35
+1
W
24
6
CHI logo
CHI
W
21-14
+7
-4
W
7
7
DAL logo
DAL@
L
21-37
-16
+5
L
-24
8
NO logo
NO@
L
27-35
-8
+11
W
-9
9
WAS logo
WAS
W
31-17
+14
-9
W
8
10
CAR logo
CAR@
L
19-28
-9
-1.5
L
-11
11
NYG logo
NYG@
L
31-34
-3
+7
W
9
12
TB logo
TB
W
20-17
+3
-12.5
L
-29
13
PHI logo
PHI
L
07-34
-27
+5
L
-67
14
NO logo
NO
L
23-26
-3
+10
W
22
15
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
10-07
+3
+5
W
9
16
BUF logo
BUF
W
31-03
+28
-8
W
53
17
TB logo
TB@
W
20-10
+10
-3
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.00
15th
EPA / Pass
+0.08
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
13th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
14th
EPA / Pass
+0.10
24th
EPA / Rush
-0.12
8th
Sack EPA
-2.83
9th
Turnover EPA
-6.70
14th
Point Differential
+2.4
14th
Points For
22.7
13th
Points Against
20.3
13th
Total Yards
340.4
16th
Passing Yards
141.4
29th
Rushing Yards
117.3
13th
Total Yards Allowed
348.9
20th
Passing Allowed
194.1
22nd
Rushing Allowed
106.8
9th

Conversions For

3rd Down
42%
11th
4th Down
70%
3rd
Red Zone
52%
13th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
45%
32nd
4th Down
47%
13th
Red Zone
51%
16th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
15th
Created
1.7
15th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
18th
Created
0.9
16th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
8th
Created
0.8
12th