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  4. 2011
ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2011 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-7
nfelo Rating
16009th
Point Diff / Game
+1.812th
Net EPA / Play
+0.03211th

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CHI logo
CHI@
L
12-30
-18
-2
L
-15
2
PHI logo
PHI
W
35-31
+4
+2.5
W
-2
3
TB logo
TB@
L
13-16
-3
+1
L
-17
4
SEA logo
SEA@
W
30-28
+2
-6
L
7
5
GB logo
GB
L
14-25
-11
+6
L
-29
6
CAR logo
CAR
W
31-17
+14
-3.5
W
11
7
DET logo
DET@
W
23-16
+7
+4.5
W
5
8BYE WEEK
9
IND logo
IND@
W
31-07
+24
-7
W
17
10
NO logo
NO
L
23-26
-3
-1
L
7
11
TEN logo
TEN
W
23-17
+6
-6
P
9
12
MIN logo
MIN
W
24-14
+10
-10
P
14
13
HOU logo
HOU@
L
10-17
-7
-2
L
-13
14
CAR logo
CAR@
W
31-23
+8
-3
W
13
15
JAX logo
JAX
W
41-14
+27
-13.5
W
24
16
NO logo
NO@
L
16-45
-29
+7
L
-10
17
TB logo
TB
W
45-24
+21
-10
W
3
18
NYG logo
NYG@
L
02-24
-22
+3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.01
13th
EPA / Pass
+0.11
9th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
23rd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.02
14th
EPA / Pass
+0.03
16th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
8th
Sack EPA
-3.23
9th
Turnover EPA
-5.08
28th
Point Differential
+1.8
12th
Points For
23.8
10th
Points Against
22.0
17th
Total Yards
369.0
12th
Passing Yards
170.0
24th
Rushing Yards
111.6
18th
Total Yards Allowed
340.1
13th
Passing Allowed
171.9
8th
Rushing Allowed
101.4
7th

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
6th
4th Down
25%
30th
Red Zone
52%
13th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
45%
30th
4th Down
58%
27th
Red Zone
46%
8th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
4th
Created
1.7
12th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
8th
Created
1.1
11th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
9th
Created
0.6
17th