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ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2016 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
13-6
nfelo Rating
17212nd
Point Diff / Game
+8.82nd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1732nd

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
TB logo
TB
L
24-31
-7
-2.5
L
-12
2
OAK logo
OAK@
W
35-28
+7
+4
W
34
3
NO logo
NO@
W
45-32
+13
+3
W
10
4
CAR logo
CAR
W
48-33
+15
+3
W
24
5
DEN logo
DEN@
W
23-16
+7
+4
W
55
6
SEA logo
SEA@
L
24-26
-2
+7
W
7
7
LAC logo
LAC
L
30-33
-3
-5
L
-29
8
GB logo
GB
W
33-32
+1
-3
L
5
9
TB logo
TB@
W
43-28
+15
-4.5
W
23
10
PHI logo
PHI@
L
15-24
-9
+1.5
L
-30
11BYE WEEK
12
ARI logo
ARI
W
38-19
+19
-4
W
10
13
KC logo
KC
L
28-29
-1
-5
L
-9
14
LAR logo
LAR@
W
42-14
+28
-5
W
41
15
SF logo
SF
W
41-13
+28
-14
W
16
16
CAR logo
CAR@
W
33-16
+17
-3
W
34
17
NO logo
NO
W
38-32
+6
-7.5
L
11
18BYE WEEK
19
SEA logo
SEA
W
36-20
+16
-6.5
W
27
20
GB logo
GB
W
44-21
+23
-6
W
24
21
NE logo
NE
L
28-34
-6
+3
L
21

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.20
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.35
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.02
4th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.03
24th
EPA / Pass
+0.09
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.03
22nd
Sack EPA
-4.11
21st
Turnover EPA
-2.64
32nd
Point Differential
+8.8
2nd
Points For
34.1
1st
Points Against
25.3
27th
Total Yards
416.6
2nd
Passing Yards
278.4
2nd
Rushing Yards
117.6
5th
Total Yards Allowed
377.8
27th
Passing Allowed
258.3
31st
Rushing Allowed
104.6
17th

Conversions For

3rd Down
44%
7th
4th Down
57%
9th
Red Zone
64%
9th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
25th
4th Down
75%
29th
Red Zone
72%
32nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.7
1st
Created
1.4
15th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
3rd
Created
0.8
17th

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
4th
Created
0.6
15th