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ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2020 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-12
nfelo Rating
146820th
Point Diff / Game
-1.118th
Net EPA / Play
-0.01015th

2020 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
SEA logo
SEA
L
25-38
-13
-2
2
DAL logo
DAL@
L
39-40
-1
+3
W
10
3
CHI logo
CHI
L
26-30
-4
-2.5
L
-17
4
GB logo
GB@
L
16-30
-14
+5
L
-17
5
CAR logo
CAR
L
16-23
-7
-2.5
L
-25
6
MIN logo
MIN@
W
40-23
+17
+3.5
W
24
7
DET logo
DET
L
22-23
-1
-1
L
-10
8
CAR logo
CAR@
W
25-17
+8
+1.5
W
7
9
DEN logo
DEN
W
34-27
+7
-4.5
W
17
10BYE WEEK
11
NO logo
NO@
L
09-24
-15
+3.5
L
-96
12
OAK logo
OAK
W
43-06
+37
+3.5
W
15
13
NO logo
NO
L
16-21
-5
+3
L
5
14
LAC logo
LAC@
L
17-20
-3
+1
L
-21
15
TB logo
TB
L
27-31
-4
+6
W
29
16
KC logo
KC@
L
14-17
-3
+11
W
23
17
TB logo
TB@
L
27-44
-17
+7
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.03
14th
EPA / Pass
+0.09
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
27th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.04
19th
EPA / Pass
+0.15
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
6th
Sack EPA
-4.30
20th
Turnover EPA
-4.59
26th
Point Differential
-1.1
18th
Points For
24.8
16th
Points Against
25.9
19th
Total Yards
368.6
15th
Passing Yards
272.8
1st
Rushing Yards
95.8
28th
Total Yards Allowed
398.6
29th
Passing Allowed
256.9
30th
Rushing Allowed
104.8
7th

Conversions For

3rd Down
44%
11th
4th Down
58%
15th
Red Zone
53%
26th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
16th
4th Down
43%
7th
Red Zone
64%
27th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
10th
Created
1.3
16th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
11th
Created
0.8
16th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
12th
Created
0.6
13th