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  4. 2024
ATL logo

Atlanta Falcons

2024 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-9
nfelo Rating
150817th
Point Diff / Game
-2.019th
Net EPA / Play
-0.04319th

2024 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PIT logo
PIT
L
10-18
-8
-4
L
-21
2
PHI logo
PHI@
W
22-21
+1
+5.5
W
13
3
KC logo
KC
L
17-22
-5
+3
L
-6
4
NO logo
NO
W
26-24
+2
-3
L
7
5
TB logo
TB
W
36-30
+6
-2.5
W
23
6
CAR logo
CAR@
W
38-20
+18
-6
W
27
7
SEA logo
SEA
L
14-34
-20
-3
L
-24
8
TB logo
TB@
W
31-26
+5
-1.5
W
44
9
DAL logo
DAL
W
27-21
+6
-3
W
7
10
NO logo
NO@
L
17-20
-3
-3.5
L
-14
11
DEN logo
DEN@
L
06-38
-32
+2
L
-26
12BYE WEEK
13
LAC logo
LAC
L
13-17
-4
+1
L
-38
14
MIN logo
MIN@
L
21-42
-21
+6
L
-20
15
OAK logo
OAK@
W
15-09
+6
-6
P
18
16
NYG logo
NYG
W
34-07
+27
-9.5
W
26
17
WAS logo
WAS@
L
24-30
-6
+3.5
L
-4
18
CAR logo
CAR
L
38-44
-6
-7.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.01
15th
EPA / Pass
+0.05
15th
EPA / Rush
+0.00
11th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.06
23rd
EPA / Pass
+0.10
28th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
24th
Sack EPA
-3.55
6th
Turnover EPA
-6.60
8th
Point Differential
-2.0
19th
Points For
22.9
14th
Points Against
24.9
23rd
Total Yards
370.1
6th
Passing Yards
214.2
7th
Rushing Yards
130.8
10th
Total Yards Allowed
345.5
22nd
Passing Allowed
147.9
3rd
Rushing Allowed
120.8
15th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
16th
4th Down
68%
5th
Red Zone
55%
20th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
45%
31st
4th Down
54%
13th
Red Zone
65%
28th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
26th
Created
1.0
21st

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
29th
Created
0.7
16th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
6th
Created
0.3
27th