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BAL logo

Baltimore Ravens

2016 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8
nfelo Rating
15568th
Point Diff / Game
+1.411th
Net EPA / Play
+0.03610th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BUF logo
BUF
W
13-07
+6
-3
W
1
2
CLE logo
CLE@
W
25-20
+5
-4.5
W
8
3
JAX logo
JAX@
W
19-17
+2
-2
P
-6
4
OAK logo
OAK
L
27-28
-1
-3.5
L
-4
5
WAS logo
WAS
L
10-16
-6
-4
L
-15
6
NYG logo
NYG@
L
23-27
-4
+3.5
L
-6
7
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
16-24
-8
+2
L
-19
8BYE WEEK
9
PIT logo
PIT
W
21-14
+7
+3
W
24
10
CLE logo
CLE
W
28-07
+21
-7.5
W
12
11
DAL logo
DAL@
L
17-27
-10
+7
L
1
12
CIN logo
CIN
W
19-14
+5
-3.5
W
7
13
MIA logo
MIA
W
38-06
+32
-3.5
W
29
14
NE logo
NE@
L
23-30
-7
+6
L
19
15
PHI logo
PHI
W
27-26
+1
-5
L
-18
16
PIT logo
PIT@
L
27-31
-4
+5.5
W
2
17
CIN logo
CIN@
L
10-27
-17
-2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.05
19th
EPA / Pass
-0.06
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
15th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.08
6th
EPA / Pass
+0.02
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.15
5th
Sack EPA
-3.98
19th
Turnover EPA
-5.19
19th
Point Differential
+1.4
11th
Points For
21.4
20th
Points Against
20.1
9th
Total Yards
348.2
17th
Passing Yards
213.6
14th
Rushing Yards
91.4
28th
Total Yards Allowed
322.3
7th
Passing Allowed
202.9
16th
Rushing Allowed
89.5
5th

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
23rd
4th Down
42%
26th
Red Zone
52%
19th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
35%
2nd
4th Down
69%
25th
Red Zone
57%
23rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
13th
Created
1.8
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.0
21st
Created
1.1
1st

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
2nd
Created
0.7
8th