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  4. 2021
BAL logo

Baltimore Ravens

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-9
nfelo Rating
144323rd
Point Diff / Game
-0.319th
Net EPA / Play
-0.01419th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
OAK logo
OAK@
L
27-33
-6
-3
L
-8
2
KC logo
KC
W
36-35
+1
+3.5
W
4
3
DET logo
DET@
W
19-17
+2
-7.5
L
-13
4
DEN logo
DEN@
W
23-07
+16
+1
W
11
5
IND logo
IND
W
31-25
+6
-7.5
L
14
6
LAC logo
LAC
W
34-06
+28
-3
W
3
7
CIN logo
CIN
L
17-41
-24
-6.5
L
-26
8BYE WEEK
9
MIN logo
MIN
W
34-31
+3
-7
L
-7
10
MIA logo
MIA@
L
10-22
-12
-8.5
L
-232
11
CHI logo
CHI@
W
16-13
+3
-5
L
250
12
CLE logo
CLE
W
16-10
+6
-3
W
-21
13
PIT logo
PIT@
L
19-20
-1
-4
L
-12
14
CLE logo
CLE@
L
22-24
-2
+3
W
-188
15
GB logo
GB
L
30-31
-1
+9
W
13
16
CIN logo
CIN@
L
21-41
-20
+7.5
L
4
17
LAR logo
LAR
L
19-20
-1
+5.5
W
20
18
PIT logo
PIT
L
13-16
-3
-3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.01
16th
EPA / Pass
-0.01
20th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
8th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.02
23rd
EPA / Pass
+0.17
30th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
2nd
Sack EPA
-5.09
27th
Turnover EPA
-6.91
5th
Point Differential
-0.3
19th
Points For
22.8
17th
Points Against
23.1
18th
Total Yards
379.1
6th
Passing Yards
233.2
6th
Rushing Yards
145.8
3rd
Total Yards Allowed
363.5
24th
Passing Allowed
236.7
29th
Rushing Allowed
84.5
2nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
25th
4th Down
67%
3rd
Red Zone
61%
13th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
35%
3rd
4th Down
61%
23rd
Red Zone
54%
12th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
24th
Created
0.9
29th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
28th
Created
0.5
27th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
13th
Created
0.4
27th