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BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2014 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-7
nfelo Rating
15768th
Point Diff / Game
+3.411th
Net EPA / Play
+0.06511th

2014 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CHI logo
CHI@
W
23-20
+3
+7
W
14
2
MIA logo
MIA
W
29-10
+19
-1
W
13
3
LAC logo
LAC
L
10-22
-12
-2.5
L
-10
4
HOU logo
HOU@
L
17-23
-6
+3
L
21
5
DET logo
DET@
W
17-14
+3
+4.5
W
10
6
NE logo
NE
L
22-37
-15
-1
L
-12
7
MIN logo
MIN
W
17-16
+1
-6.5
L
-9
8
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
43-23
+20
+3
W
12
9BYE WEEK
10
KC logo
KC
L
13-17
-4
-1.5
L
-13
11
MIA logo
MIA@
L
09-22
-13
+4
L
-14
12
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
38-03
+35
-4.5
W
85
13
CLE logo
CLE
W
26-10
+16
-3
W
0
14
DEN logo
DEN@
L
17-24
-7
+9.5
W
7
15
GB logo
GB
W
21-13
+8
+3.5
W
-5
16
OAK logo
OAK@
L
24-26
-2
-6.5
L
-5
17
NE logo
NE@
W
17-09
+8
+4.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.09
25th
EPA / Pass
-0.04
21st
EPA / Rush
-0.14
28th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.15
1st
EPA / Pass
-0.16
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.09
12th
Sack EPA
-4.28
19th
Turnover EPA
-5.46
24th
Point Differential
+3.4
11th
Points For
21.4
18th
Points Against
18.1
4th
Total Yards
318.9
24th
Passing Yards
213.4
11th
Rushing Yards
92.9
25th
Total Yards Allowed
312.2
4th
Passing Allowed
194.9
14th
Rushing Allowed
106.4
10th

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
26th
4th Down
43%
20th
Red Zone
43%
30th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
33%
1st
4th Down
45%
14th
Red Zone
50%
10th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
16th
Created
1.9
3rd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
11th
Created
1.2
5th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
15th
Created
0.7
10th