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BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2015 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8
nfelo Rating
153112th
Point Diff / Game
+1.312th
Net EPA / Play
+0.01712th

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
IND logo
IND
W
27-14
+13
+1
W
-15
2
NE logo
NE
L
32-40
-8
-1.5
L
-0
3
MIA logo
MIA@
W
41-14
+27
+1
W
49
4
NYG logo
NYG
L
10-24
-14
-6.5
L
-6
5
TEN logo
TEN@
W
14-13
+1
3
6
CIN logo
CIN
L
21-34
-13
+3
L
-27
7
JAX logo
JAX@
L
31-34
-3
-3.5
L
-25
8BYE WEEK
9
MIA logo
MIA
W
33-17
+16
-4
W
17
10
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
22-17
+5
+2.5
W
5
11
NE logo
NE@
L
13-20
-7
+7
P
12
12
KC logo
KC@
L
22-30
-8
+4.5
L
15
13
HOU logo
HOU
W
30-21
+9
-3
W
15
14
PHI logo
PHI@
L
20-23
-3
+1
L
3
15
WAS logo
WAS@
L
25-35
-10
-2
L
-6
16
DAL logo
DAL
W
16-06
+10
-6.5
W
-9
17
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
22-17
+5
+3
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.02
12th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
14th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
2nd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.00
16th
EPA / Pass
+0.03
15th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
32nd
Sack EPA
-4.37
22nd
Turnover EPA
-3.08
32nd
Point Differential
+1.3
12th
Points For
23.7
12th
Points Against
22.4
15th
Total Yards
361.2
13th
Passing Yards
179.4
28th
Rushing Yards
152.3
1st
Total Yards Allowed
356.9
20th
Passing Allowed
221.7
22nd
Rushing Allowed
108.4
16th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
19th
4th Down
44%
24th
Red Zone
48%
26th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
23rd
4th Down
23%
1st
Red Zone
57%
17th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
7th
Created
1.6
10th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
5th
Created
1.1
6th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
11th
Created
0.6
15th