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BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2016 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
146622nd
Point Diff / Game
+1.312th
Net EPA / Play
+0.01815th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BAL logo
BAL@
L
07-13
-6
+3
L
-10
2
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
31-37
-6
-11
3
ARI logo
ARI
W
33-18
+15
+5.5
W
6
4
NE logo
NE@
W
16-00
+16
+3.5
W
20
5
LAR logo
LAR@
W
30-19
+11
-2.5
W
50
6
SF logo
SF
W
45-16
+29
-7.5
W
14
7
MIA logo
MIA@
L
25-28
-3
-2.5
L
-21
8
NE logo
NE
L
25-41
-16
+6.5
L
-26
9
SEA logo
SEA@
L
25-31
-6
+6
P
3
10BYE WEEK
11
CIN logo
CIN@
W
16-12
+4
+2.5
W
1
12
JAX logo
JAX
W
28-21
+7
-8.5
L
-9
13
OAK logo
OAK@
L
24-38
-14
+3
L
-15
14
PIT logo
PIT
L
20-27
-7
+2
L
-24
15
CLE logo
CLE
W
33-13
+20
-10.5
W
12
16
MIA logo
MIA
L
31-34
-3
-4.5
L
-56
17
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
10-30
-20
-4
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.01
11th
EPA / Pass
+0.04
19th
EPA / Rush
+0.09
1st
Def. EPA / Play
-0.01
16th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
19th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
23rd
Sack EPA
-4.16
23rd
Turnover EPA
-3.34
30th
Point Differential
+1.3
12th
Points For
24.9
10th
Points Against
23.6
16th
Total Yards
354.6
16th
Passing Yards
170.8
27th
Rushing Yards
164.6
1st
Total Yards Allowed
357.3
19th
Passing Allowed
179.4
8th
Rushing Allowed
133.1
29th

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
13th
4th Down
53%
10th
Red Zone
63%
10th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
19th
4th Down
29%
6th
Red Zone
53%
11th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
2nd
Created
1.1
23rd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
5th
Created
0.8
20th

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
2nd
Created
0.4
26th