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BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2017 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-8
nfelo Rating
147117th
Point Diff / Game
-3.822nd
Net EPA / Play
-0.06821st

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
21-12
+9
-7.5
W
18
2
CAR logo
CAR@
L
03-09
-6
+6.5
W
-8
3
DEN logo
DEN
W
26-16
+10
+3.5
W
8
4
ATL logo
ATL@
W
23-17
+6
+8
W
6
5
CIN logo
CIN@
L
16-20
-4
+3
L
-14
6BYE WEEK
7
TB logo
TB
W
30-27
+3
-3
P
3
8
OAK logo
OAK
W
34-14
+20
-2
W
14
9
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
21-34
-13
-3.5
L
-6
10
NO logo
NO
L
10-47
-37
+2
L
-145
11
LAC logo
LAC@
L
24-54
-30
+7
L
113
12
KC logo
KC@
W
16-10
+6
+9
W
10
13
NE logo
NE
L
03-23
-20
+7.5
L
-131
14
IND logo
IND
W
13-07
+6
-3
W
118
15
MIA logo
MIA
W
24-16
+8
-3.5
W
11
16
NE logo
NE@
L
16-37
-21
+11
L
-15
17
MIA logo
MIA@
W
22-16
+6
-2.5
W
16
18
JAX logo
JAX@
L
03-10
-7
+8.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.09
22nd
EPA / Pass
-0.10
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.07
13th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.02
19th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
15th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
32nd
Sack EPA
-4.60
18th
Turnover EPA
-4.16
28th
Point Differential
-3.8
22nd
Points For
17.9
27th
Points Against
21.7
16th
Total Yards
299.1
29th
Passing Yards
158.9
29th
Rushing Yards
126.3
5th
Total Yards Allowed
347.8
21st
Passing Allowed
192.1
14th
Rushing Allowed
126.4
29th

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
9th
4th Down
19%
30th
Red Zone
51%
22nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
11th
4th Down
57%
24th
Red Zone
54%
16th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
9th
Created
1.4
12th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
12th
Created
1.1
7th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
9th
Created
0.4
26th